Brent Returns Above $96 as Iran Tensions Rise

The outlook for a peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war also worsened, and Houthi strikes hit Saudi pumping stations. The price rebound has cast doubt on the International Energy Agency’s expectations of a supply glut in the fourth quarter of 2026, following the initial post-midterm price drop in the United States.

OPEC left its forecast for 2026 global oil-demand growth unchanged at 180,000 barrels per day, but raised its projection for 2027 growth to 2.55 million b/d, despite weaker Chinese demand and increasing non-OPEC supply. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry reported that production rose 26% month on month to 10.56 million b/d last month. Market supply was 9.2 million b/d, a gap the report said could indicate Saudi Aramco added about 40 million barrels to inventories.

Other energy developments include Libya considering a floating LNG regasification unit from summer 2027, as domestic gas production of 1.2 billion cubic feet per day falls short of demand. The Trump administration is reportedly seeking to extend a Jones Act waiver that expires November 15, with case-by-case exemptions intended to let more foreign tankers carry commodities between U.S. ports.

In company and market news, BP is reportedly in talks to sell Petrobras a stake in Brazil’s 8-billion-barrel Bumerangue discovery. Orlen plans to terminate a 1 million-tonne-per-year LNG contract with QatarEnergy within 60 days after the supplier declared force majeure on European deliveries; Orlen retains another 1 mtpa deal through 2034. CNOOC reported an ultra-deep gas discovery in the Bohai Sea, where its first well produced about 28 million cubic feet per day.

The report also noted that aluminium’s LME cash premium reached nearly $180 per tonne, while copper recorded a fifth consecutive weekly decline, falling below $13,500 per tonne. U.S. firms are unlikely to import Russian diesel despite a waiver allowing up to 1 million tonnes per month, as banks and ports fear legal exposure.