Iran War Revives Turkmenistan’s $10 Billion TAPI Pipeline Push

Satellite images taken on November 7 show the pipeline running from Turkmenistan’s southern border to a construction site about 22 kilometers west of Herat’s industrial district. The location matches a Taliban government description of a planned offtake station. The 1,800-kilometer project is intended to carry gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh fields to Afghanistan, Pakistan and, eventually, India.

First envisioned in the 1990s, TAPI has faced delays, conflict in Afghanistan and tensions among the countries involved. India appeared to turn away from the project by 2024, while Pakistan’s interest also waned. Its projected cost of up to $10 billion further fueled doubts about Turkmenistan’s commitment. The section built to Herat has reportedly cost Ashgabat $600 million.

At an energy forum in Ashgabat in late October, Pakistan’s ambassador to Turkmenistan, Faryal Leghari, said Islamabad was now “committed” to advancing the pipeline. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, which has constrained Persian Gulf energy supplies, may have renewed Pakistan’s interest. John M. Roberts, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, told RFE/RL that Turkmenistan’s investment in the route to Herat could prompt efforts to extend it south to Kandahar and Pakistan. He said Chinese financial backing may be needed for a project too large for Turkmenistan to fund alone; Afghanistan has also floated Russian investment in the onward route.

Afghanistan could collect hundreds of millions of dollars a year in transit fees if the pipeline reaches Pakistan and India. But construction has faced difficulties, including unexploded ordnance, according to Afghans who spoke to RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. They said Turkmen engineers and specialists use Turkmen-owned equipment, while Afghan participation is limited to armed security at worksites.

Herat residents, recently affected by rising gas prices and electricity shortages, have welcomed the pipeline’s approach. Local resident Abu Ali called it “a real sign of hope.” Software engineer Abdul Saboor Rahmani, 27, said residents should receive the gas transparently, with only a small markup on the global market price. Afghanistan was scheduled to receive about 5 percent of the pipeline’s gas, with Pakistan and India each allocated half of the remaining 95 percent. Roberts said the project’s future still depends on regional stability and Turkmenistan’s willingness to accept outside investors.