Fitch Sees Sub-Saharan LNG Exports Rising 175% by 2034

The forecast marks a rise from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024. The African Energy Chamber projects that the continent’s upstream sector will attract about $40 billion annually through 2030, lifting hydrocarbon output to 12.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Ivory Coast are expected to receive the largest shares, while projects in Uganda, Kenya and Namibia add to production prospects.

Mozambique is advancing several large developments in the Rovuma Basin. Construction on TotalEnergies’ $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, a 13.1-million-tonnes-per-year facility, resumed in January after a four-and-a-half-year force majeure and is about 45% complete. Eni and its partners have begun offshore drilling for the $7.2 billion Coral North floating LNG project, targeting commercial operations in 2028. It would raise Mozambique’s operating floating LNG capacity to 7 million tonnes per year. ExxonMobil has also doubled its working interest in the $30 billion Rovuma LNG project to 50%; a final investment decision is targeted for late 2026.

Nigeria is pursuing its Decade of Gas initiative and fiscal incentives for non-associated gas projects. Nigeria LNG’s Train 7 expansion is expected to raise capacity to 30 million tonnes per year from 2027. NNPC Ltd and upstream partners signed 20-year gas supply agreements last year to provide NLNG with 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day of feedgas, with options to extend.

Elsewhere, the Senegal-Mauritania Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project began commercial operations after its first LNG cargo shipped in April 2025. Phase one has capacity of 2.5 million tonnes per year, with phase two designed to reach 5 million. Namibia is pursuing development plans for the Venus and Mopane discoveries, while Tanzania has largely completed negotiations on the commercial structure, tax and revenue sharing for its $42 billion LNG project. A host government agreement and parliamentary approval are still outstanding. Africa’s gas demand is projected to grow 60% by 2050; natural gas currently makes up 17% of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 25% globally.